Grains and oilseeds mixed as weather, Black Sea risk and demand signals collide
Markets saw a mixed set of drivers on June 16. Bearish pressure came from improved U.S. corn and soybean conditions, ongoing wheat harvest progress, and a higher Ukraine wheat outlook, while support came from Black Sea export risks, Australian weather threats, and selective demand signals.
Grains and oilseeds ended the day with mixed signals
On June 15, markets faced a conflicting mix of drivers: bearish pressure came from higher corn production and stock outlooks, softer energy markets, and rapid U.S. wheat harvest progress, while wheat found support from Plains drought, a smaller U.S. winter wheat crop, lower Ukrainian grain exports, and Australian frost risk.
June 14: grain markets mixed, with Black Sea risk offering moderate support
The day’s news flow was mixed for grains. Bearish local signals came from a record wheat crop in Africa and a possible expansion of corn import access in the Philippines. However, strikes on Russian fuel and chemical infrastructure raised Black Sea logistics and energy risks, which looked like the main supportive factor for wheat.
Weekly grains review: ample supply capped prices, but Black Sea risk rebuilt support in wheat
During June 8–14, global grain and oilseed markets stayed mixed. Early in the week, comfortable supply signals dominated: favorable U.S. weather, strong corn and soybean progress, heavy Brazilian supply, and expectations for a large U.S. corn crop. By the end of the week, however, Black Sea risk premium strengthened again after strikes on port, fuel, and logistics infrastructure. Wheat held up better than the rest of the complex, while corn and especially soybeans remained pressured by comfortable supply.
Grains and oilseeds: Black Sea risk premium outweighed mixed local crop signals
On June 13, agricultural markets leaned moderately supportive, led by higher Black Sea logistics risk after strikes on Russian port infrastructure. Crop and weather news elsewhere was mixed: weak Kansas wheat yields supported prices, while a record Kurdistan wheat harvest added local pressure and Wisconsin dryness offered only limited support to corn.
Grain signals were mixed: U.S. wheat and Black Sea risks supported prices, but EU harvest prospects capped gains
June 12 brought a mixed picture for grain markets. Wheat found support from a USDA supply cut, the smallest U.S. winter wheat crop since 1965, and Black Sea logistics risks. But better EU harvest prospects and reports of near-record Black Sea production limited the upside. Corn was also mixed, with stronger U.S. export sales offset by weaker Ukrainian cash prices. Soybeans stayed under pressure from favorable weather and ample global supplies.
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