WASDE May 2026: initial 2026/27 outlook is broadly supportive for grains and mixed-to-firm for oilseeds

The May 2026 WASDE is USDA’s first set of forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year, and the report itself stresses that these projections are highly tentative because Northern Hemisphere planting is still underway and Southern Hemisphere planting is still months away. That caveat matters: this is a starting framework for the new crop year, not a settled balance sheet.

Even with that caution, the overall tone across the major row crops is moderately supportive. The clearest bullish impulse comes from wheat and corn, where USDA projects lower production and lower ending stocks versus 2025/26. Oilseeds are more nuanced. Global oilseed production rises, led by soybeans and sunflowerseed, which is a bearish supply-side feature. But U.S. soybean ending stocks still decline year over year, and USDA projects a higher U.S. soybean price.

Wheat is one of the strongest supportive stories in this report.

For the United States in 2026/27:

• all-wheat production is projected at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million bushels from last year;
• exports are projected lower at 775 million bushels because of reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices;
• ending stocks fall to 762 million bushels, down 18 percent from 2025/26;
• the season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.

Globally:

• wheat production drops to 819.1 million tons from the prior year’s record 843.8 million;
• world ending stocks decline to 275.0 million tons;
• USDA says a large share of the production decline comes from the major exporters, especially the United States, EU, Argentina, and Australia.

That combination points to a tighter global wheat balance sheet at the start of the new season.

Corn also carries a clearly supportive balance.

For the United States:

• the crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent year over year;
• total supplies decline to 18.1 billion bushels despite larger beginning stocks;
• ending stocks fall by 185 million bushels from last year;
• the season-average farm price rises to $4.40 per bushel.

Globally:

• world corn production declines to 1.295 billion metric tons;
• world consumption rises to a record 1.315 billion metric tons;
• consumption exceeds production by 19.4 million tons;
• ending stocks fall to 277.5 million tons, which USDA says would be the lowest since 2013/14.

That is one of the strongest tightening signals anywhere in the report.

Soybeans are less straightforward than grains, but the U.S. balance sheet still leans supportive.

USDA projects for 2026/27:

• U.S. soybean production at 4.435 billion bushels, up from 2025/26;
• crush at 2.750 billion bushels, supported by favorable margins and strong soybean oil demand as a biofuel feedstock;
• exports at 1.630 billion bushels, up from 2025/26;
• ending stocks at 310 million bushels, down from 340 million in 2025/26;
• the U.S. season-average soybean price at $11.40 per bushel, versus $10.40 the year before.

Soybean oil is especially firm in the U.S. outlook, with biofuel use projected at 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion from 2025/26, and the soybean oil price forecast at 70 cents per pound, up 7 cents.

The main bearish counterweight in the report is the broader oilseed complex.

USDA projects:

• global oilseed production up 19.6 million tons to 718.1 million;
• soybean production up nearly 14.0 million tons, mainly in Brazil, the United States, and Argentina;
• sunflowerseed production up 7.0 million tons, mainly in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Argentina;
• rapeseed production up only 1.4 million tons, but still higher year over year.

Global crush also rises, and vegetable oil exports are expected to increase 4 percent, with sunflowerseed oil showing the strongest growth.

Even though wheat fundamentals are tighter, USDA also projects global wheat trade down 12.0 million tons to 211.7 million. The report attributes that mainly to reduced import demand from North Africa and the Middle East, where several countries are expected to have significantly larger production.

That means the wheat story is bullish on supply and stocks, but less supportive on trade flow volume.

This is a tighter opening balance sheet than last season. Lower production across major exporters matters. For the Black Sea specifically, Russia remains the largest wheat exporter, with exports projected at 47.0 million tons in 2026/27 versus 46.0 million in 2025/26. Ukraine’s wheat exports are projected at 13.0 million tons, up from 12.5 million.

Corn is arguably the strongest bullish feature in the report. Larger crops in China, Brazil, Serbia, Kenya, and Russia only partly offset declines in the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine, and Turkey. For Ukraine, USDA projects corn exports at 23.0 million tons, up from 22.0 million in 2025/26, despite lower production. That is a mixed but still constructive signal for Ukraine’s role in trade.

The text does not provide a long standalone global barley narrative, but USDA explicitly says world barley production is forecast higher than a year ago. In the U.S. table, barley production rises to 149 million bushels from 141 million, and ending stocks rise to 66 million bushels from 63 million. Relative to wheat and corn, that reads as more neutral to slightly softer.

The U.S. soybean outlook improves on exports after 2025/26, when tariff measures curtailed shipments to China. Still, USDA says the U.S. share of global soybean trade is likely to continue its longer-term decline because large South American supplies and strong domestic U.S. demand limit export growth.

This is one of the most important sections for the Black Sea. USDA projects global sunflowerseed production up 7.0 million tons, mainly for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Argentina. It also expects higher sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Argentina. Among vegetable oils, sunflowerseed oil exports are projected to show the strongest growth in 2026/27, especially for Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey.

Rapeseed is a milder story. Global area is up 4 percent, but production rises only 1 percent, or 1.4 million tons, because major producers such as Canada and the EU return to trend yields after last year’s highs. USDA also points to expanding canola crush in Canada and higher canola oil exports from Canada.

For the Black Sea region, the report is mixed but broadly constructive:

• Russia keeps its dominant role in wheat exports;
• Ukraine is projected to export slightly more wheat and corn than in 2025/26;
• Ukraine and Russia are central to the expected increase in sunflowerseed production, crush, and sunflowerseed oil exports.

At the same time, the wheat demand side is less supportive because import demand from North Africa and the Middle East is projected to ease. That matters for Black Sea wheat exporters even in a tighter global supply environment.

Using only the supplied WASDE text, the overall message is moderately bullish for global agricultural markets, led by wheat and corn. Both markets start 2026/27 with lower production and lower ending stocks, and corn in particular shows a notable drawdown in world inventories. Soybeans are more balanced: global supply expands, but U.S. stocks still tighten and U.S. prices rise. Sunflowerseed and rapeseed look less bullish because production is increasing, especially in sunflowerseed.

The biggest caution is USDA’s own warning: these are initial and highly tentative forecasts. So the directional signal is supportive, but confidence should remain limited at this stage of the season.