September 2026 WASDE: corn and soybeans lead the upside, while wheat stays mixed on larger global stocks

USDA’s September 2026 WASDE (WASDE-675) sends a moderately bullish message for the broader grains and oilseeds complex, though the report is clearly mixed by commodity. The strongest support comes from:

• lower U.S. corn production and ending stocks;
• a higher U.S. corn season-average farm price;
• higher U.S. soybean exports with lower ending stocks;
• a higher U.S. soybean price forecast;
• a higher U.S. wheat farm price;
• lower world corn ending stocks;
• slightly lower world soybean ending stocks.

The main limiting factor is wheat. While U.S. wheat is unchanged on supply and use and gets a higher farm price, the global wheat balance becomes heavier, with larger supplies and higher ending stocks. That keeps the overall report from being a stronger upside surprise.

Corn is the clearest supportive feature in this report. USDA cut 2026/27 U.S. corn production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion bushels, driven by a 2.2-bushel-per-acre yield reduction to 178.5 bushels per acre and a fractional decline in harvested area.

Total U.S. corn use was lowered by 150 million bushels, entirely through feed and residual, but that was not enough to offset the smaller crop. As a result, ending stocks fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion. USDA also raised the season-average farm price by $0.30 per bushel to $4.80.

That combination—smaller crop, lower stocks, higher price—is a straightforward bullish signal.

USDA lowered world corn ending stocks to 272.1 million tons, down 2.6 million from last month. Foreign corn production was cut for India, Kenya, and Russia, only partly offset by increases for the EU and others.

The report explicitly cites:

• reduced harvested area and below-normal rainfall in India;
• widespread crop failure after a prolonged dry spell in Kenya.

Those changes reinforce the tighter global corn tone.

For soybeans, USDA raised U.S. production to 4.535 billion bushels, but the more market-relevant change was on demand: exports were increased 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion. That pulled ending stocks down to 310 million bushels.

USDA also raised the U.S. season-average soybean price by $0.60 per bushel to $12.00. Soybean meal was also marked higher, up $30 to $340 per short ton.

The global soybean balance is only modestly changed, but directionally supportive. USDA raised global soybean exports and trimmed global ending stocks by 0.2 million tons to 124.0 million, mainly because of lower U.S. stocks.

The biggest bearish counterweight in the report is wheat. USDA raised 2026/27 global wheat supplies by 3.5 million tons to 1,103.0 million, mainly on larger crops in major exporters. Production was increased for:

• Australia to 31.0 million tons;
• Canada to 36.0 million tons;
• Ukraine to 26.0 million tons.

Kazakhstan was lowered, but not enough to offset the broader increase.

USDA also raised global wheat ending stocks by 3.0 million tons to 276.3 million. That is a clear bearish influence for wheat prices at the world level.

Foreign barley production was raised, led by Australia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Australia’s barley crop was lifted to a record 17.1 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month, with exports also increased. That points to more exportable barley supply and is generally a bearish development for barley competition.

USDA raised global rapeseed production by 1.9 million tons and global sunflowerseed production by 1.0 million tons. Larger output is supportive for supply availability, but from a price perspective it is more of a bearish or limiting factor than a bullish one.

The U.S. wheat balance sheet is unchanged in aggregate, but exports were reshuffled by class. White wheat exports were raised 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring were lowered 15 million and 5 million, respectively. The key U.S. change is the farm price increase to $6.40 per bushel.

Globally, wheat is mixed. Production is higher, trade is lower, and ending stocks are higher. Russia and Ukraine exports were reduced because weak August shipments show that war-related Black Sea logistics remain a constraint.

Corn is the strongest bullish section of the report. The U.S. crop is smaller, U.S. ending stocks are lower, and the U.S. farm price is higher. Globally, corn stocks are also lower. Brazil’s corn exports were reduced because of higher domestic use for ethanol production.

Barley is more bearish than bullish in this report because foreign production rose, especially in Australia. Record Australian output and higher exports increase competition in world feed grain markets.

Soybeans are supportive overall. The U.S. balance tightened through stronger exports and lower ending stocks, while the global balance also shows slightly lower stocks and higher trade.

These markets received larger production estimates. Rapeseed gains were concentrated in Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uruguay, while sunflowerseed gains came from Kazakhstan, Russia, and the EU. That is more of a supply-expansion story than a bullish price story.

• Black Sea: Wheat exports for Russia and Ukraine were reduced because weak August shipments reflect war-disrupted logistics. At the same time, Ukraine’s wheat production was raised, creating a mixed regional signal.
• Australia: A major source of added wheat and barley supply. This is one of the report’s clearest bearish influences for those crops.
• North America: The U.S. provides the strongest bullish impulse through corn and soybeans. Canada adds to global wheat supply and also contributes to higher global soybean production.
• Asia: India is a key source of tightening in corn and rice due to below-normal rainfall and uneven monsoon coverage. The report says most of the largest rice changes are tied to India.
• Europe: EU corn production was raised, and the EU also contributed to higher sunflowerseed output.

The September WASDE is best read as moderately bullish overall, led by corn and soybeans, not by wheat. The corn story is the strongest: lower U.S. production, lower U.S. stocks, lower world corn stocks, and a higher U.S. price forecast. Soybeans also lean supportive through stronger U.S. exports, lower U.S. ending stocks, and a higher U.S. price.

The reason this is not a stronger bullish report is wheat. Global wheat production and ending stocks both increased, which offsets part of the positive tone elsewhere. So the cleanest conclusion is: bullish for corn, supportive for soybeans, mixed for wheat, and overall moderately positive for the global grains and oilseeds complex.