WASDE May 2026: initial 2026/27 outlook is broadly supportive for grains, with tighter stocks offsetting mixed oilseed signals

USDA’s May 2026 WASDE is the first set of forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year, and the report itself stresses that these projections are highly tentative. Northern Hemisphere planting is still underway and Southern Hemisphere planting is still months away, so this is more of an opening framework than a settled seasonal balance sheet.

Even with that caveat, the broad message is fairly clear: global grain balances tighten, while oilseeds send a more mixed signal. Wheat production falls from last year’s record, trade declines, and ending stocks edge lower. Corn looks even tighter, with lower production, record consumption, and a drawdown in global ending stocks to what USDA says would be the lowest since 2013/14.

Oilseeds do not deliver the same uniformly bullish message. U.S. soybeans show higher supplies, crush, and exports, but lower ending stocks and a higher farm price. Globally, however, total oilseed production, crush, and ending stocks all rise, helped by larger soybean and sunflowerseed crops. That keeps the overall oilseed tone from matching the tighter grain story.

1. World wheat production declines across major exporters. USDA explicitly says a large share of the drop comes from the main exporting countries, with the biggest reductions in the United States, the EU, Argentina, and Australia. That matters because exportable supply tightens where the market is most sensitive.

2. Global corn ending stocks fall sharply. USDA projects 2026/27 world corn ending stocks at 277.5 million tons, down 19.4 million from the prior year. The report adds that this would be the lowest since 2013/14, making corn one of the strongest supportive features in the entire release.

3. World corn consumption exceeds production. Consumption is forecast at a record 1.315 billion tons, above production of 1.295 billion tons. That implies a meaningful stock draw after only a modest surplus the year before.

4. U.S. wheat and corn prices are projected higher. U.S. wheat’s season-average farm price is forecast at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 year over year. Corn is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents. These are U.S. farm prices, not world benchmarks, but they reinforce the tighter balance-sheet message.

5. U.S. soybeans get support from lower ending stocks and stronger product demand. USDA highlights favorable crush margins and strong soybean oil demand tied to biofuel use, which helps tighten the U.S. soybean balance despite larger production.

1. Global oilseed production rises. USDA projects world oilseed output up 19.6 million tons to 718.1 million, which limits the bullish spillover from tighter grains.

2. Sunflowerseed production rebounds strongly. Output is expected to rise 7.0 million tons, mainly in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Argentina. That points to more seed, meal, and oil availability.

3. Rapeseed production also increases. Global rapeseed area rises 4 percent, while production grows by 1.4 million tons. That is not a bearish shock, but it still adds supply to the vegetable oil complex.

4. Global oilseed ending stocks increase slightly overall. That stands in contrast to the tighter grain stock outlook and keeps the oilseed complex from turning decisively bullish.

Wheat is one of the clearest bullish sections of the report. World production for 2026/27 is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million. Global trade falls by 12.0 million tons to 211.7 million, and ending stocks decline to 275.0 million tons.

The U.S. balance sheet also tightens materially. Production drops to 1,561 million bushels, exports fall to 775 million, and ending stocks decline to 762 million bushels, down 18 percent from the prior year. USDA also notes that the first survey-based winter wheat production forecast is down 25 percent year over year, led primarily by sharply reduced Hard Red Winter output.

Corn is arguably the strongest supportive feature in the report. World production falls to 1.295 billion tons, while consumption rises to a record 1.315 billion. Ending stocks drop to 277.5 million tons.

In the United States, the crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent from a year ago. Exports are forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, and ending stocks fall to 1.957 billion bushels. USDA also says stocks would represent 12.1 percent of use, down from 13.0 percent the prior year.

The report gives limited narrative detail on barley, so the signal here is less direct. USDA does state that world barley production is forecast higher than a year ago. In the U.S. table, barley production rises to 149 million bushels from 141 million, and ending stocks increase to 66 million from 63 million. Relative to wheat and corn, that reads as neutral to slightly softer.

The U.S. soybean outlook is moderately supportive. Production rises to 4.435 billion bushels, exports increase to 1.630 billion, crush climbs to 2.750 billion, and ending stocks fall to 310 million bushels. USDA projects the U.S. season-average soybean price at $11.40 per bushel, up from $10.40.

Globally, though, the picture is more balanced than outright bullish. World soybean production rises to 441.54 million tons, while ending stocks slip only slightly to 124.78 million tons. So soybeans are tighter in the United States, but not clearly scarce at the world level.

Sunflower is one of the more clearly bearish elements within the oilseed complex. USDA projects sunflowerseed production up 7.0 million tons, mainly in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Argentina. It also expects higher sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Argentina, while sunflowerseed oil exports show the strongest growth among major vegetable oils.

Global rapeseed production rises by 1.4 million tons. USDA notes that area is up 4 percent, but production grows only 1 percent because major producers such as Canada and the EU return to trend yields after last year’s highs. That is not an aggressive bearish signal, but it does add supply.

• Black Sea: Russia remains the largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine stays important in both wheat and corn. In oilseeds, Ukraine and Russia are major drivers of the projected sunflowerseed and sunflower oil expansion.
• Europe: The EU is one of the largest sources of lower wheat production, but it is also part of the increase in sunflowerseed and rapeseed supply.
• South America: Brazil and Argentina drive much of the increase in global soybean production. In corn, Brazil expands while Argentina declines.
• Asia: China is projected to produce more corn and import more soybeans. India increases wheat food use and rice use, while remaining the leading rice exporter.

This first USDA look at 2026/27 is moderately bullish overall, but not uniformly so. The strongest support comes from wheat and corn, where lower production and lower stocks tighten the global balance sheet. The most mixed area is soybeans and the broader oilseed complex, where stronger U.S. demand and lower U.S. soybean stocks are offset by rising global oilseed production, especially sunflowerseed.

Because these are only initial forecasts and USDA explicitly calls them highly tentative, the market should treat this report as a supportive opening-season baseline for grains, not a final verdict. If later weather or acreage updates confirm the current direction, the grain-side tightening shown in this WASDE could become more consequential. For now, the report’s clearest message is simple: grain supplies look less comfortable in 2026/27, while oilseeds remain more mixed.