WASDE November 2026: bigger global grain stocks weigh on markets, while soybeans stay relatively firm

USDA’s WASDE-677 for 2026/27 delivers a mixed but overall moderately bearish message for global agricultural markets, especially grains. The dominant theme is that world ending stocks increased for wheat, coarse grains, and rice versus October. That softens the tighter-supply narrative, even though there are still meaningful export cuts in the Black Sea and a smaller U.S. corn crop.

Oilseeds tell a different story. Soybeans stand out as relatively supportive: the U.S. balance sheet shows higher production and exports, lower ending stocks, and a higher season-average farm price. Globally, soybean ending stocks were also reduced. Meanwhile, the broader oilseed complex was mixed, with rapeseed production raised and sunflowerseed production lowered.

For the Black Sea region, the report is especially important because USDA explicitly says the conflict in the Black Sea region continues to reduce shipments for both Russia and Ukraine below long-term averages, despite efforts to use alternative ports and transport routes.

• Global wheat trade availability tightened even as total supply rose. USDA cut Russia’s wheat exports by 1.0 million tons to 39.0 million and Ukraine’s by 1.0 million tons to 11.5 million.
• Ukraine wheat production was raised to 26.5 million tons, but exports were lowered and ending stocks increased. That is supportive for world export competition because more wheat is trapped in stocks rather than moving freely into trade.
• U.S. corn production fell by 141 million bushels, and ending stocks were reduced to 1.758 billion bushels.
• U.S. soybeans strengthened: exports were raised 25 million bushels, ending stocks were cut to 300 million bushels, and the season-average farm price was increased to $12.10 per bushel.
• Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by 0.8 million tons to 123.5 million, with higher crush and import demand in several countries.
• Global sunflowerseed production was reduced by 0.5 million tons, mainly on lower output in Russia and Argentina.

• Global wheat ending stocks increased by 4.8 million tons to 280.8 million tons, following a 6.4 million-ton increase in supplies. That is the clearest bearish feature in the report.
• Global coarse grain ending stocks increased by 2.9 million tons to 316.2 million tons, mainly due to larger corn inventories in Ukraine and China.
• Global corn trade was reduced, with lower exports for Ukraine, the United States, and India more than offsetting higher exports for Argentina.
• Global rice also turned softer, with higher supplies, lower consumption, lower trade, and higher ending stocks.
• U.S. wheat was slightly softer, with lower domestic use, slightly higher ending stocks, and a lower farm price at $6.20 per bushel.
• U.S. corn demand was trimmed alongside the smaller crop, and USDA lowered the season-average farm price to $4.60 per bushel, signaling weaker demand conditions.

The U.S. wheat balance sheet changed only modestly: supplies were unchanged, domestic use was lowered slightly, exports were steady, and ending stocks were raised marginally. Within classes, there was an important reshuffle. White wheat exports were increased on strong sales and competitive pricing into Asia, while HRW exports were reduced on weak sales and shipments.

Globally, wheat is where the report’s mixed signals are most visible. Production was raised for Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, lifting total world supplies. But exports from Russia and Ukraine were both cut. So the world has more wheat overall, yet less of it is expected to move efficiently through Black Sea export channels.

The U.S. corn story is not straightforwardly bullish. Production and ending stocks were lowered, but USDA also cut feed and residual use and exports. In other words, tighter supply was partly offset by weaker demand.

Globally, corn changes were uneven. Argentina and Brazil received higher production forecasts, while the United States and South Africa were lowered. Ukraine’s corn exports were cut to 20.0 million tons, which matters for Black Sea export availability.

Global barley production was raised 1.0 million tons to 161.1 million, mostly because of larger crops in Australia and Ukraine, partly offset by lower output in Russia. Barley trade also increased on stronger Australian exports. That reads as neutral to mildly bearish for the global barley balance.

Soybeans were one of the strongest parts of this WASDE. In the United States, production increased, exports increased, ending stocks fell, and the farm price moved higher. Globally, soybean production was trimmed slightly, crush and import demand were raised, exports were increased for the United States and Argentina, and ending stocks were reduced.

The text is shorter here, but the direction is clear. Global rapeseed production was raised 0.7 million tons on higher yields in Australia and Uruguay. Global sunflowerseed production was lowered 0.5 million tons because of reduced crops in Russia and Argentina, partly offset by higher production in South Africa.

This is one of the report’s most important regional themes. USDA directly links weaker shipments from Russia and Ukraine to the ongoing conflict. For wheat, Russia’s exports were cut to 39.0 million tons and Ukraine’s to 11.5 million. For corn, Ukraine’s exports were lowered to 20.0 million tons. At the same time, Ukraine’s wheat and barley production estimates were raised, which means more grain remains in stocks.

The report was constructive for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina saw higher wheat and corn production. Brazil received higher corn and sorghum production estimates, and USDA also noted stronger domestic corn use there. These gains partly offset Black Sea export weakness.

Australia was one of the clearest beneficiaries in this report: higher wheat, barley, and rapeseed production, plus stronger wheat and barley export prospects.

The main conclusion from the November WASDE is that global grains look moderately bearish overall because USDA increased ending stocks for wheat, coarse grains, and rice. The biggest pressure comes from broader global availability and larger inventories.

Still, the report is not uniformly bearish across all crops. Black Sea export constraints remain supportive for tradable wheat and corn. Soybeans look notably firmer than grains because of lower stocks and stronger demand signals. Sunflowerseed also carries a more supportive tone due to lower global production.

So this is not a simple “bearish for everything” WASDE. But for the global grain basket, the message is fairly clear: more stocks, softer trade, and moderate downward pressure overall.